MONARK

Coverage-gated decision from the real HIKAE L3 policy (commit/defer/abstain) over a caller-carried authorization budget B_t. Dispatches on task_class. For 'btc-dir-15m' it conformalizes against a committed synthetic calibration derived from the HIKAE S2a instrument (seed 101, n=300 draw), declared synthetic — a plumbing fixture, not a measured predictor. For 'cascade-liquidable-24h' no cascade calibration is committed; the gate abstains (under_calib) on this class. When the caller instead supplies a `calibration` (its own nonconformity scores plus a `mode`: `interval` ⇒ region [yhat - q̂, yhat + q̂], or `set` ⇒ a conformal set over caller `candidates`), the gate conformalizes against THOSE caller-supplied scores (BYO): split-conformal quantile at miscoverage α over caller-supplied nonconfo

Estimated liquidable amount from the real UKEMI cascade primitives (imported, never re-implemented): an Eisenberg-Noe clearing of the interbank system (L, e) with alpha=beta=1 yields the largest clearing vector L*; each node is then read as a leveraged position — collateral is its cleared balance-sheet value (external assets plus interbank receipts under L*), debt is its nominal obligations, liquidation threshold K=1 — and liquidableAmount sums the debts of the nodes whose cleared value, once shocked by the caller-carried 24h fraction, no longer covers their obligations. Shocking the whole cleared value is a v0 simplification; no source supports shocking interbank receivables. yhat is that liquidable amount: a monetary quantity in the reference asset, a single point that HIKAE conformalize

split-conformal quantile at miscoverage α over caller-supplied nonconformity scores. MONARK does not see, store, or verify the caller's data or model, and does not validate that the supplied numbers are nonconformity scores of any model. Marginal 1−α coverage holds ONLY for future points exchangeable with the supplied scores; non-exchangeable data (e.g. distribution-shifted or time-ordered) voids it. Never a probability of being right.